Highly likely, the real tussle in Batu Sapi is between Yong and Linda.
Lets forget the splitting hairs between Yong and Ansari by now.
Although Ansari clothes sure dries up already, probably he is busy fixing the wet and damaged handphones at the time being. Leave him alone, please. Unless of course, you people want him to gets wet another time, again.
There are countless bloggers cum political analysts on the net, and expressing their respective views on how the outcome of Batu Sapi might be. Some of them did a fairly good job, some lousy, like the article that you are reading right now.
But basically, when it comes to predicting the election result the basis are all the same. Political analysts refer to the voters distribution. To be specific, it is the ethnic distribution in Batu Sapi and past election results. That is how most analysis always started with 60% solid chances for BN, then the rest is for opposition.
Now, to further lower the opposition chances of winning, those 40% will have to be shared among them perhaps 25% to PKR and 15 % to SAPP because of three-corner fight. What an easy analysis, as usual BN always win. It can be understood as SAPP is just "spoiler", says Wan Azizah. But SAPP doesn't seems to agree with that.
Anyway, eventually no matter how good you are, the prediction chances to goes right will always be 50-50. When it comes right, the author said "I told you so" and if it goes wrong, "well" they say, "anything can happen out there". This way, they can never be wrong at all.
Having said that, I therefore aren't going to based my analysis on statistic this time.
I had asked the most trusted bomoh of mine on the election result.
Yeah, you read it correct. Bomoh. Shameful act uh?
Well what is all the fuss about getting bomoh view anyway. Bomoh advice can be accurate you know. Many politicians use bomoh service, tau sama tau lar. Even Taib Mahmud got the best bomoh for himself. When a girl named Siti Balqis gone missing, I bet her family had consulted bomoh too, but in this case the bomoh was proven to be wrong. What a lousy bomoh.
Nevermind. My bomoh said the chances is 50-50. When he said so, then it must be 50-50 chances between Yong and Linda. Unlike in peninsula, playing with racial card is out of question here as both of them are sabahan of chinese stock. And who care about racial issue anyway, here we have a distinct ethnic known as "sino-native" as the result of mix-marriage. Cina pun Sabahan juga maa..
Back to the bomoh, this is the first rule of consulting any of them. You must trust them as there is no point of seeing one if you don't. Anything they say must be right, as that is the way it should be. If they are proven to be wrong later, then it must be due to sabotage of other bomohs or some kind of spiritual beings blocking their view!
50-50 means Yong and Linda chances of winning are almost the same. The only problem is that how the ratio comes about. Is it based on the number of polling centers or voter's distribution in Batu Sapi? The two are different issues altogether actually, as shown in the past in Malaysia. Based on overall voter percentage, BN was actually lost at least in one General Election as you can read here.
But wait a second, something must not right here. There is no such thing as 50-50 result in any election. There must be only one winner, either Yong or Linda! My bomoh definitely is hiding something, and I know the reason why. He is a BN supporter, and I bet he, like most people do, think that I'm supporting the opposition. When he said 50-50, actually BN may slightly on the upper hand ~ he doesn't wants me to get upset by saying so. Aiyah, how can I got upset baliau, I'm not even a member of any political parties lah.
Ok, nevermind. 50-50 pun boleh la, at least there will be a fair fight in Batu Sapi. But put it this way, 50-50 isn't always a good news for SAPP, the challenger. Those who on defend of their domain will do whatever they can to prevent the takeover. Remember what Najib said about defending Putrajaya?
In the case of Batu Sapi, logistically speaking mighty BN certainly has an edge over certain type of voters, especially the last type which have been mentioned in my previous article, read here. It is up to SAPP on how to handle voters of this type to ensure success in Batu Sapi.
Good luck to both of you!